Copyright 2006 Jason Chew
Place your bet not on the ball but outside the field…
Soccer or football is the world’s most popular ball game. The 2006 FIFA World Cup is just than less than 2 months away. The World Cup is the world’s most popular soccer tournament where the best 32 teams around the world will play each other to win the soccer’s most prestige prize, the World Cup!
Traditionally, during major tournaments and games, the main focus is on the tournament itself and World Cup is one of these games. Most people are either concern on which teams have won, lost or draw and the score between the teams. During the World Cup, soccer gambling and betting enjoyed huge followings in globally. Most people will place bets on the game and teams that played. There are also other effects it has on the world. Soccer fans and enthusiasts who are in different time zone will stay overnight to catch a game and some even neglected their jobs. World Cup is also a period where increase in gambling activities and decrease in productivity in most countries.
But the pros far outweigh the cons. Hosting countries will enjoy the prestige of holding the event and also enjoy increased in revenue from hosting the event. The hosting country of World Cup will always enjoyed a short period of economic growth due to increase in number of tourist visiting the country and the revenue from tourism. From statistics, for the period within 3 before and after the event, the hosting country will enjoy a short-term economic growth and has a positive impact on the equity markets. The market condition will be good and hence conducive for investment. The equity markets and consumer staples will outperform the broad markets and the normal period.
Germany’s 2005 GDP is US$2.452 trillion up from US$2.362 trillion in 2004. It’s average GDP growth is 0.5% in a period of 5 years. On 2 occasions that Germany hosted the World Cup and European Championship in 1974 and 1988, domestic stocks outperform the broad markets in the same periods from April to August. Thus, Germany will be a good place to invest as most of the stocks will perform well from now till August.
Companies who sponsor or directly linked to the event will also enjoy a short-term growth during this time. There are 15 Official Partners of the 2006 FIFA World Cup. They are Adidas, Anheuser-Busch, Avaya, Coca-Cola, Continental, Deutsche Telekom, Emirates, Fujifilm, Gillette, Hyundai, MasterCard, McDonald’s, Philips, Toshiba and Yahoo!. All these partners not only gained in publicity from sponsoring the events but also enjoy a short period of growth in their stocks. Expect the stocks of these companies to outperform the broad market in these few month periods.
So, it is good to place your bet on the stocks of these companies as they might increase in value during these period. Adidas, Coca-Cola and Fujifilm will be my top 3 picks of stock to outperforms the market in these periods.
Here is my reasoning:
Adidas is the world’s 2nd famous sports brand after Nike. More media coverage means more sales for Adidas. The sporting goods sales should rise as the matchs progress. Adidas has enjoy a period of steady growth in its net income from EUR $208 in 2001 to EUR $383. With all the fundamentals in place, Adidas will not doubt perform well in these periods.
Coca-Cola is always present at most major sporting events and World Cup is one of them. More media coverage, means more sales of its soft drink. Furthermore, Coca-Cola always outperforms consistently during major sport evening such as World Cup. The operating income for 2005 is US$6085 Million up from US$5689 Million in 2004. Currently, Coca-Cola is value at above US$40 per lot. It is expected that the stock will enjoy substantial rise in value during these periods.
Fujifilm is in imaging business. It is undergo restructuring in business structure since last year. Though is photo film and related products have declined, its digital solution is quickly gaining popularity. As soccer has huge following around the world, the World Cup with its worldwide media attention is beneficial for digital imaging technology. The reported operating income for FY2006 is 70.6 Billion Yen and it is expected to increase to 80 Billion Yen in FY2007. I foresee the stock will have some gain in value.
But, in soccer there’s this saying. “The ball is round. Anything can happen!” Please exercise your investment with caution.